Portugal Telecommunications Report Q1 2016
BMI View: The Portuguese market is mature and exhibits volatile growth. Market saturation, lowdiscretionary spending and high prepaid subscribers all contribute towards a telecom industry outlook thatis far from optimistic. However, changed ownership for all key players bar Vodafone suggests that morerational investment strategies will lead to the development of more advanced services. This will be a boonto the weak consumer market, but the surviving operators will need to be leaner and fitter to survive thechanging market dynamics.
Latest Updates and Industry Developments
Mobile subscriptions declined in 9M15, in line with expectations. We forecast 16.788mn subscriptionsby end-2015, rising to 16.889mn in 2019 as 3G/4G migration accelerates. There will be 7.421mn 3G/4Gsubscriptions by 2019.
Operator consolidation and altered ownership structures will focus investment on next-generationplatforms, facilitating uptake of high-value triple- and quad-play services. Broadband subscriptions willreach 3.938mn in 2019, but will yield lower average revenue per user (ARPU) as a result of bundling.
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