Poland Shipping Report Q1 2016
BMI View: Our 2015 estimate for a 30% increase in container throughput at Poland's largest port,Gdansk, has been driven by its inclusion to the G6 Alliance's weekly Loop 7 Asia service, while weanticipate strong growth to continue in 2016 at a rate of 11.4%. Furthermore, a new liquid berth terminalat the port commissioned in 2015 is boosting liquid fuel volumes handled and supports our forecasts forsustained growth in throughput tonnage. Modernisation of rail networks in the country focused onimproving connectivity to ports is also attracting business with Poland's second largest port, Gdynia,forecasted to handle increased container traffic and throughput tonnage in 2016. Further supporting ourpositive outlook is steady economic growth in Poland and recovering European economies.
Over the medium term (2016-2019) we expect real growth in total trade to average 5.2% with importsgrowing faster than exports. We forecast unemployment to continue decreasing and inflation to remain lowincreasing consumer buying power and consequently imports. Poland's shipping sector also relies ondemand from European trading partners and future growth in trade flows to main exporting destinations willshape throughput volumes over the medium term. Germany is a major importer of Polish goods and weforecast slow but steady growth in German GDP and imports while we anticipate Russian imports torecover from the 2015 decline and average yearly growth of 7.0% over the medium term. France and CzechRepublic will also see growth in imports to 2019, boosting demand for Polish exports. Further supportingthroughput volumes will be the completion of several infrastructure projects at ports and rail networks,accommodating and promoting trade growth.
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