We hold our pessimistic outlook for Poland's non-hydro renewables industry, which will register only tepid growth over the coming decade. Targeted regulatory restrictions on the wind and biomass sectors hamper renewables potential and underline the right-wing Order and Justice government's support for the country's large coal industry. The prospects for non-hydro renewables are unlikely to improve at least until next parliamentary elections scheduled in late 2019.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast modest growth in Poland's non-hydro renewables industry over the coming decade. The industry's capacity will expand by an annual average of just 2.2%, reaching 8,163MW in 2026, up from an estimated 6,591MW in 2016. In terms of generation, we project an even weaker growth, averaging 1.5% per annum during the same period. Total generation from the non-hydro renewables is forecast to reach 28.1TWh by 2026, up from around 21.1TWh in 2016.