Poland Renewables Report Q2 2016

Poland Renewables Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Mounting political risks in Poland made us substantially downgrade our forecasts for thegrowth in the Poland's renewables sector. The newly elected Law and Justice (PiS) government holds arobust support for the domestic coal sector, while at the same time proposing a number of restrictivelegislations for the development of renewable energy sources, particularly the wind power segment. Webelieve this will result in a deteriorating operating and investment environment for the renewables'developers.Latest Updates and Structural Trends

Considering mounting political risks, we have substantially downgraded our forecast for the growth inPoland's renewables sector. We now expect the non-hydro renewables capacity to expand by 3.4% perannum over the coming decade - down from our previous forecast of 6.6%.

We believe that planned punitive requirements on wind power projects, coupled with the new PiSmajority government's support for coal-fired power, will have a detrimental impact on investorconfidence in the Polish wind power sector. As such, we have revised downwards our growth forecast forthe wind segment from 6.9% per annum to 3.0% per annum over the coming decade.

The latest amendment to the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Act prompted another six-monthpostponement of the first competitive auction for wind power until July 1 2016. This creates even greaterpolicy uncertainty, as other amendments to the RES Act are likely.

In late 2015, Chinese firm Yingli Green Energy expanded its joint solar project pipeline in Poland withlocal company R.Power from 30MW to 60MW. The deal extends the two firms' existing partnership tobuild ground-mounted projects for inclusion into the auction systems over the next two years.


BMI Industry View
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Poland Renewables Forecast Scenario
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025)
Poland Renewables Projects Database
Table: Poland - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Poland Renewables Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
Targets
Subsidies
Infrastructure
Competitive Landscape
Tauron Polska Energia
PGE/PSE
ENEA
Energa
RWE/STOEN
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators

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