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Poland Metals Report 2015

BMI View: The fortunes of Poland's steel and copper sub-sectors are likely to diverge over the next fewyears as robust growth in steel production levels contrasts with sluggish expansion in copper output. Theexpansion in domestic autos production and construction activity will provide much of the drive for steelconsumption and output, which, in contrasts, Polish copper producers appear to be shifting productionincreasingly overseas.

We expect the steel industry to be the main driver of growth in Poland's metals sector over 2015 and beyondas a steady rise in domestic consumption generates reliable demand for local steel mills. Data from theWorld Steel Organisation shows Poland's steel output to have grown by about 11% year-on-year (y-o-y)during the first four months of 2015 and we expect this momentum to carry through the coming quarters. Arobust Polish economy will provide an important platform for growth in steel demand through the comingmonths, with GDP expected to expand by 3.5% in 2015, one of the fastest rates of growth within the EU.

Within this picture, we see the autos sector to remain important drivers of steel consumption as consumerspending increases and overseas manufacturers take advantage of lower Polish labour costs. Infrastructurewill also be a primary growth driver, with an EU-funded EUR17.5bn investment programme supportingincreased levels of steel usage.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Metals SWOT
Industry Forecast
Steel: Economic Recovery To Drive Production, Imports
Table: Steel Production & Consumption (Poland 2012-2019)
Table: Steel Industry Historical Data (Poland 2006-2012)
Copper: Overseas Operations To Usurp Domestic Growth
Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise)
Regulatory Development
Commodities Forecast
Commodity Strategy
Ferrous Metals
Iron Ore: Price To Remain Under Pressure In 2015-2016
Steel: Subdued Prices Until 2017
Non-Ferrous Metals
Copper: Subdued Outlook, Despite Recent Rally
Lead: Prices Weakness To Continue
Nickel: Subdued Prices Due To Weak Demand Growth
Tin: Supply Deficits To Underpin Rally In Tin Prices
Zinc: Positive Multi-Year Outlook, But Increasing Risks In Months Ahead
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
Commodities Forecast
Table: BMI Steel Price Forecast
Market Balance: Declining Surpluses In Years Ahead
Table: Steel Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Table: Leading Metals Producers - Central Europe
Company Profile
KGHM
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data
Global Company Strategy - ArcelorMittal - Q2 2015
Company Overview
Company Strategy
Latest Financial Results
Company Details
Financial Data
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data
Methodology
Cross Checks

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