BMI View: Continued EU funding inflows will be of paramount importance to Poland's nascentconstruction sector recovery throughout 2017, greatly heightening the stakes in the ongoing rift betweenPoland and the EU, the escalation of which may jeopardise access to said funds. Strong economic growthwill buoy growth in the country's residential and non-residential segments alike, while Poland's transportsector will emerge as the primary beneficiary of the EU's emphasis on financing cross-border infrastructureprojects.
Forecast & Industry Developments
We have maintained our 2017 forecast at 6.1%, reflecting positive recently released Q1 17 constructionsector data. We view this strong growth as a temporary phenomenon due to the base effects of acontractionary 2016 and expect the fundamental dynamics underpinning our more muted view ofPoland's infrastructure growth - an overreliance on EU funding and an intensification of political risk - toreassert themselves over the remainder of our forecast period.