BMI View: Our forecasts for growth in all freight modes in 2016 go in line with 2015 estimates reflectingeconomic recovery in Poland and major European trading partners. Air freight cargo will see the fastestgrowth although in terms of tonnage carried, while air freight remains negligible as more than 84% offreight transported on road. Important investment in both road and rail network upgrades will meanincreased capacities to accommodate improved domestic demand and imports and growing exports due tobetter performing economies in the eurozone. Over the medium term this trend will be sustained with totaltrade growth in Poland projected to average 5.0% in the 2017-2019 period.
Poland has achieved positive GDP growth rates throughout the recent economic depression, unlike manyother European countries, and inflation rates have remained low, helping domestic demand to increase andboost import volumes. Wage levels have not been as stable as other economic indicators, with varyinggrowth between business sectors restraining great expansion in consumer demand. Whole economy (nonprimary) annual wage growth in 2016 is projected at 1.2%, with unemployment forecast at 9 .0% - onlymarginally lower from 2015 estimates of 9.5%. The real GDP growth estimate for 2015 is 3.4%, anticipatedto rise to 3.9% in 2016, supporting our outlook that the trend of growing import volumes driven byconsumer demand will continue in the short term. On the other side of trade, exports will increase assignificant importers of Polish goods - Germany, the United Kingdom, Czech Republic, France and Russia -are all expected to achieve an increase in imports in 2016. Real GDP growth in 2016 is anticipated at 3.9%and for the eurozone in total 1.7%.
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