Poland Consumer Electronics Report Q2 2016
BMI View: We consider Poland's consumer electronics market has a bright outlook over 2016-2020, with a CAGR of 6.5% forecast to USD9.6bn in 2020. A more supportive economic environment is central to this view, including zloty appreciation forecast for 2017-2020, in contrast to 2015 when depreciation against the US dollar hit device spending. Polish income growth alongside appreciation will boost purchasing power and offers upside for device volumes and potential for an easing of price sensitivity, which will boost vendor performance. We also have a positive assessment of product trends, including a stabilisation of the PC market, smart and Ultra-HD TV set upgrades and price increases in the smartphone market.
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Computer Hardware Sales: USD2.3bn in 2016 to USD3.2bn in 2020, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4% in US dollar terms. After a steep decline in 2015, rising incomes and global purchasing power growth will underpin expansion from 2016, with upside for PC unit prices in contrast to the declines over recent years..
AV Sales: USD1.9bn in 2016 to USD2.3bn in 2020, a CAGR of 5.1%. Smart and Ultra-HD TV sets improve the outlook for TV set upgrades, while digital camera volume declines are expected to slow, boosting the outlook.
Handset Sales: USD3.3bn in 2016 to USD4.1bn in 2020, a CAGR of 6.0%. Market dynamics expected to change as smartphone volume growth slows, but zloty appreciation provides upside for unit prices, in contrast to trends over 2012-2015.
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