Philippines Telecommunications Report Q2 2015
BMI View: Relatively low penetration and increasing GDP per capita will give impetus for mobile marketgrowth in the Philippines. BMI believes that mobile growth will average 3.5% over 2015-2018. A newentrant - media conglomerate ABS-CBN Corporation - launched its mobile virtual network operator(MVNO) service under the ABS-CBNmobile brand in December 2013 using the network infrastructure ofGlobe Telecom. Despite the new competition, BMI believes market dynamics are likely to remain in favourof the incumbents, Philippine Long Distance Telephone (PLDT) and Globe Telecom, given their strongbrand and unassailable scale, which make it hard for new entrants to compete effectively. A rise in publicWi-Fi spots is likely to add growth to the broadband services.
Strong mobile subscription growth continued in Q214, reaching a subscription base of 111.9mn, a 2.2%year-on-year growth rate. We now expect a total of 132.034mn mobile subscriptions by the end of ourforecast period to 2019.
The number of fixed-line subscribers could be experiencing a sustained period of contraction due tomobile substitution. We forecast 2.11mn subscribers by 2019, representing a 1.9% penetration rate.
Despite the mobile market effectively being a duopoly, mobile average revenue per user (ARPU)continues to trend lower. Without a concerted effort to move towards higher revenue-generating productsand subscribers, operator ARPU will continue to fall.
BMI Industry ViewSWOT SWOT Mobile SWOT Wireline Political Economic Operational Risk Industry Forecast Mobile Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (2012-2019) ARPU Broadband Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (2012-2019) Industry Risk Reward Ratings Industry Risk Reward Index Table: Asia-Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q215 Market Overview Mobile Regional Perspective Table: Philippines Mobile Market Regional Comparison, 2013 Key Developments Market Growth Market Share Usage Table: Mobile Operators Prepaid And Postpaid APRU (PHP) Networks Mobile Operator Data Table: The Philippines Market Overview Table: Smart Communications Table: Globe Telecom Table: Sun Cellular (acquired by PLDT) Asia Mobile Content Wireline Table: Philippines' Fixed-Line Market ('000) Broadband Industry Trends And Developments Table: Telecoms Market Developments Regulatory Development Regulatory Overview Table: Philippines - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities Table: Regulatory Developments Competitive Landscape Table: Key Players Table: Selected Operator Revenues (USDmn) Company Profile Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company Smart Communications Globe Telecom Digital Telecommunications Philippines Regional Overview Table: Ericsson Key Asia Contracts/Trials Announced, 2015 Demographic Forecast Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990-2025) Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990-2025) Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990-2025) Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990-2025) Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990-2025) Glossary Table: Glossary Of Terms Methodology Industry Forecast Methodology Sources Risk/Reward Index Methodology Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators Table: Weighting Of Indicators