Philippines Renewables Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Renewable energy continues to be a key strategy in the government's fight against climate change. The country's largely saturated geothermal market enables investments to move to other renewable sources, particularly wind and solar, which are also backed up by governmental FiT programmes. The solar market in particular continues to see strong interest, with about 4GW worth of projects awarded by the country's Department of Energy as of end-2015. In the medium term, expansion rates are undermined by several obstacles related to an inadequate national grid, a volatile business environment and a strong market dynamic for cheaper coal power, paired with high electricity prices that have led to a lack of political commitment to follow through on ambitious renewables targets.
Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast non-hydropower renewables electricity generation to grow by 8.4% y-o-y in 2016, and nonhydropower renewables electricity capacity by about 15.9% y-o-y.
The revised Feed-in-Tariffs for Wind and Solar in 2015 have shown significant changes in rates for both sources. While feed-in tariff (FiT) capacity for wind remained constant at 200MW, solar power received a significant raise from the previous 50MW to 500MW.
Solar power consequently has seen a boost in awarded projects by the DoE, reaching 4GW as of end-2015 - almost double the amount registered in June that year. In comparison, about 1.17GW of wind power projects, 610MW of geothermal and 212MW of Biomass have been awarded.
Wind power forecasts have consequently suffered from limited FiT support and growing conventional energy projects in the pipeline. We expect the sector's capacity to stagnate in 2016 despite strong growth estimated for 2015, as several major projects entered the market.
In July 2015, Philippines-based Gregorio Araneta announced plans to build a 100MW solar farm in Cadiz that will entail an investment of around USD175mn, and is expected to start delivering electricity to the national grid by 2016.
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