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Philippines Power Report Q2 2016

Philippines Power Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We expect robust growth in the power sector in the Philippines, with total generation expectedto expand by an average of 4.8% during our 10-year forecast period to 2025. With recovery from the 2013typhoon gathering pace, reasonable domestic economic growth and a range of new projects beingannounced, overall the future is looking positive for the Philippine power market.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

Notwithstanding the adverse effects that linger from Typhoon Haiyan that struck the Philippines in late2013, we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with a range of projects including coal-fired plantsand various renewable energy constructions in the pipeline. We forecast total electricity generation growthof 5.2% in 2016, reaching 81.7TWh. Further growth throughout the forecast period means total generationis expected to reach 122TWh by 2025.

Thermal energy will continue to dominate the energy market in the Philippines, accounting for over 70% oftotal electricity generation through our forecast period. Healthy growth is expected across coal, natural gasand hydropower.

The growth in electricity generation means we expect the Philippines will be able to keep up with theexpected increases in consumption, which we forecast will grow by about 5.0% a year, although the countryis vulnerable to fluctuations and we believe the power situation will remain tenuous.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Philippines 2015-2021)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Philippines Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2015-2020)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Philippines Power Forecast Scenario
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecasts
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecasts
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecasts
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecasts
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025)
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Asia Power Risk/Reward Index
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
Philippines Power Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Pricing
Philippines Power Projects Database
Table: Philippines Power Projects Database
Competitive Landscape
Napocor
The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo)
First Gen
Aboitiz Power
Ayala Corporation
Mirant
Meralco
EDC
AES
Regional Overview
Asia Power Regional Overview
Table: China Power Snapshot
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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