Philippines Freight Transport and Shipping Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Overall, 2016 will be a year of steady to robust growth across the Philippine freight transportindustry, with the exception of road haulage, which will increase at a paltry 2.1%. External headwinds willweigh on exports, but strong domestic demand and investment should translate into heightened imports andsupport continued volume growth.
The outlook for Philippine trade remains mixed, in large part due to a sedate regional environment which isimpacting upon demand from the country's major neighbouring trade partners. Deteriorating regionaldemand conditions will weigh on export performance in the Philippines, acting as a drag on the Philippineeconomy and adding downside pressure on the peso. Mounting concerns over the Chinese economyfollowing the People's Bank of China (PBOC)'s cumulative 3.5% devaluation of the yuan in August couldalso undermine regional growth prospects, potentially contributing to rising fears of default risks in theregion. Despite this, we expect that the economy as a whole will remain resilient thanks to a likely uptick infiscal spending, which should in turn support imports. We forecast real GDP growth of 6.0% in 2016 and5.9% in 2015, from an estimated 5.7% in 2015.
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