Philippines Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: Overall, 2016 will be a year of mixed growth across the Philippine freight transport industry,with air freight set for a robust expansion, while road haulage will be more sedate. External headwinds willweigh on exports, but strong domestic demand and investment should support continued volume growth.
The outlook for the Philippines' trade remains mixed, in large part due to a sedate regional environmentwhich is impacting upon demand from the country's major neighbouring trade partners. Deterioratingregional demand conditions will weigh on export performance in the Philippines, acting as a drag on thePhilippine economy and adding downside pressure on the peso. Mounting concerns over the Chineseeconomy following the People's Bank of China (PBOC)'s cumulative 3.5% devaluation of the yuan inAugust could also undermine regional growth prospects, potentially contributing to rising fears of defaultrisks in the region. Despite this, we expect that the economy as a whole will remain resilient thanks to alikely uptick in fiscal spending, which should in turn support imports. We forecast real GDP growth of6.0% in 2016 and 5.9% in 2015, from an estimated 5.7% in 2015.
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