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Philippines Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Philippines Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Executive Summary

Core Views

We maintain our below-consensus expectations for growth to come in at 6.3% in 2018. Leading financial market indicators and wan - ing reform momentum suggests that growth has likely peaked in the near term. That said, we expect growth to average above 6% over the medium term, which is still a solid figure by regional and historical perspectives.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Solid Growth To Continue, But Acceleration Unlikely
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT & EXPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS & EXPORTS
Monetary Policy
BSP Likely To Hike In 2018 To Safeguard Macro Stability
Monetary Policy Framework
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Budget 2018: Law Enforcement A Focus Along With Infrastructure, Education
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE & EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL & PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
PHP: Neutral Near Term, Outperformance In Total Return
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Philippine Economy To 2027
Potential For Higher Investment Rate To Sustain Economic Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
End Of Marawi Siege, But Terror Threat Remains
Long-Term Political Outlook
Stable Politics For Now, But Political Challenges Remain
instances of turmoil Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE
TABLE: MAIN ACTIVE TERRORIST GROUPS
TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
TABLE: MAJOR CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
Transport Network
TABLE: ROAD RISKS
TABLE: RAIL RISKS
TABLE: PORTS & INLAND WATERWAY RISKS
TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
Chapter 5:BMI Global Macro Outlook
EM Growth To Accelerate In 2018 While DMs Plateau
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES ’ REAL GDP GROWTH, %

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