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Philippines Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

Philippines Agribusiness Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term, given thecountry's potential for expansion into new sectors, such as palm oil. We particularly like the outlook forsugar production and believe the livestock sector will continue to show healthy growth rates. ThePhilippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support, will foster domestic andforeign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems,especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. These inefficiencies will becomeincreasingly crippling as South East Asia moves towards the ASEAN Economic Community, which issupposed to lead to trade and investment liberalisation in the region. Although the Philippines' governmentappears to have taken the measure of the challenge and is now supporting rice and sugar production,agriculture in the country remains uncompetitive. As such, the sector is at risk of low cost imports from itsneighbours over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 19.5% to 3.0mn tonnes. Sugar production growth will be drivenby improvements in yields. The government approved the Sugarcane Industry Development Act, which isaiming at diversifying the sugar sector towards more value-added products and will provide financing tofarmers.

Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 16.3% to 1.0mn tonnes. Poultry production will record steadybut unspectacular growth. Growth will be driven by investment, both domestic and foreign.

Rice production growth to 2019/20: 13.8% to 13.5mn tonnes. Production growth will be fuelled bycontinued improvements in infrastructure and yields as the government looks to attain self-sufficiencyand support output.

Agribusiness market value: 2.6% increase to USD35.172bn in 2016, forecast to grow on average4.6% annually between 2016 and 2020.

2016 real GDP growth: 6.0% (up from 5.7% expected in 2015; predicted to average 5.9% over2016-2020).

2016 consumer price inflation: 2.3% y-o-y (up from 1.4% expected in 2015; predicted to average 3.7%over 2016-2020).


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Agribusiness
Industry Forecast
Grains Outlook
Table: Philippines
Grains Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Philippines
Risks To Grains Outlook
Table: Grains Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013
2020)
Rice Outlook
Table: Philippines
Rice Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Philippines
Risks To Rice Outlook
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013
2020)
Sugar Outlook
Table: Philippines
Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Philippines
Risks To Sugar Outlook
Table: Philippines
Sugar Mills Operational Data
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013
2020)
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2012
2020)
Dairy Outlook
Table: Philippines
Dairy Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Philippines
Risks To Dairy Outlook
Table: Dairy Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013
2020)
Livestock Outlook
Table: Philippines
Livestock Production And Consumption Outlook
Table: Philippines
Risks To Livestock Outlook
Table: Livestock Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013
2020)
Commodities Price Analysis
Global Commodities Strategy
Table: Select Commodities
Performance And BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Table: Select Countries
Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Selected Countries
GM Crops Use (mn hectares)
Downstream Analysis
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators
Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 20122019)
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 20122019)
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade
Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 20142019)
Regional Overview
Table: Impact Of El Niño On Crops
Competitive Landscape
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies
Demographic Forecast
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Philippines 1990
2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Philippines 1990
2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Philippines 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Philippines 1990
2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Philippines 1990
2025)
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
SectorSpecific Methodology

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