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Peru Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Peru Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Economic activity in Peru will strengthen over the coming quarters, driven by investment and production gains in the mining sector and fiscal and monetary stimulus.

We forecast real growth will accelerate to 3.9% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019, from 2.5% in 2017.

The government will increase public spending in an effort to boost growth, with reconstruction and other capital expenditures on infra-structure to be the focus.

Fiscal stimulus efforts will be supported by dovish monetary policy as low inflation allows the BCRP to maintain an accommodative monetary policy through end-2018.

President Martin Vizcarra will likely see out the remainder of former President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski's term through 2021. We do not expect a shift away from current bussiness-friendly policies under the new administration.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Economy To Pick Up Despite Heightened Political Risk
Economic Growth Outlook II
Mining Investment And Fiscal Stimulus To Bolster Growth
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Mining Exports To Narrow Current Account Deficit
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy Framework
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Currency Forecast
PEN: Copper Will Drive Modest Upside
TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Peruvian Economy To 2027
Robust Growth Over Next Decade
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION KEY TO GROWTH OUTLOOK
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Vizcarra Begins Tenuous Presidency
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Regional Tensions The Main Threat To Stability
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR CRIME AND ORGANISED CRIME
Education
TABLE: PERU AND OECD AVERAGE – STUDENT PERFORMANCE SCORES (2015)
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: PERU – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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