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Panama Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Panama Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Gradually rising global trade volumes will drive Panama Canal usage, and a strong infrastructure pipeline will attract investment, supporting robust economic growth in Panama over the coming years.

Political gridlock in Panama will persist ahead of the general election in May 2019. A strong opposition in the National Assembly means that President Juan Carlos Varela's proposed constitutional referendum is unlikely to succeed.

The finance and logistics sectors will drive services export growth and help to narrow the country's current account deficit in the next five years, while foreign direct investment covers Panama's external financing needs.

The construction workers' strike in the second quarter of 2018 will impair growth because of the size of the sector and the temporary loss of wages for many Panamanian households.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Construction Strike To Hinder Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Current Account Deficits Will Persist
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
Panama's Economy To 2027
Transport-Related Services Will Sustain Growth
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3:Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Policymaking Paralysis Will Continue Until 2019 Election
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Continuity A Strength, But Public Trust To Be Tested
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: PANAMA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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