Pakistan Telecommunications Report Q4 2017
We have not made major forecast revisions in the latest report update. The mobile marketrecovered well from the 2014/15 SIM registration drive, suggesting strong organic growth potential.Furthermore, 3G and 4G uptake is strong and our new forecasts envision stronger uptake of mobile dataservices out to 2021. We highlight that Mobilink's acquisition of Warid in August 2016 will put significantpressure on competitors, especially CMPak (Zong), which has few strategic options other than to proceedwith a USD1bn investment in its mobile-only business. The deal would not create an excessively powerfulplayer, but price competition is expected and the negative impact on ARPUs can only be offset by increaseduptake of premium services. This will be difficult in the prepaid-centric market, but the merger will at leastmotivate reviews of current business strategies. Telenor had spent over USD390mn in acquiring spectrumin the 850MHz band whereas Mobilink acquired new spectrum in the 1.8GHz airwaves in Q217 forUSD295mn to boost its 4G LTE services. We are of the opinion that both market titans are gearing up forsevere competition in the 4G LTE advanced data segment going forward.
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