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Oman Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

Oman Oil and Gas Report Q2 2016

BMI View: We believe that Oman's oil industry still provides new and lucrative opportunities ranging fromthe approval of additional upstream projects to new discoveries, with a focus on offshore resource finds aunique new area of interest. However, due to the prevailing low price environment, smaller energyproducers such as Oman will have more challenges attracting upstream investment.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts

The signing of a heads of agreement for the second phase development of the Khazzan tight gas field hasled us to revise up Oman's gas production forecast. We believe the two-phase Khazzan project and ahealthy number of smaller developments will boost the overall output from around 33.2bcm in 2015 to apeak of 51.8bcm in 2025, with minor declines until the end of our review period.

Oman's 2015 crude oil and liquids production averaged 969,100b/d in 2015. We forecast the output topeak at 988,800b/d in 2017, followed by gradual declines in the second half of our review period. Wehold our view that the downside risks to Oman's oil production forecast arises from the low oil prices,which weigh on comparatively costly enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects.

We hold our estimates that Oman's gas consumption continued to increase rapidly in 2015, posting a6.3% year-on year (y-o-y) increase to 25.4bcm. Fuelled by the country's rapid industrial development andgrowing use of gas for power generation, Oman's gas demand is set to grow by an annual average rate of7.3% between 2016 and 2025 to 50.6bcm.

State-owned Oman Oil Company Exploration & Production (OOCEP) plans to invest up to USD4bnover the next five years to boost output despite low oil prices, according to a statement by the ChiefOperating Officer Suleiman al-Zakwani in December 2015.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Forecasts (Oman 2014-2020)
SWOT
Oil & Gas SWOT
Industry Forecast
Upstream Exploration
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Upstream Projects
Table: Oman Upstream Projects
Upstream Production - Oil
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oil Production (Oman 2014-2019)
Table: Oil Production (Oman 2020-2025)
Upstream Production - Gas
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Oman Gas Prices
Table: Gas Production (Oman 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Production (Oman 2020-2025)
Refining
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Oman 2014-2019)
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Oman 2020-2025)
Refined Fuels Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Oman 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Oman 2019-2024)
Gas Consumption
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Consumption (Oman 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Consumption (Oman 2020-2025)
Trade - Oil
Crude Oil Trade
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Oman 2014-2020)
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Oman 2020-2025)
Fuels Trade
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Oman 2014-2019)
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Oman 2020-2025)
Trade - Gas (Pipeline & LNG)
Latest Updates
Structural Trends
Table: Gas Net Exports (Oman 2014-2019)
Table: Gas Net Exports (Oman 2020-2025)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Middle East - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Downstream: Limited Opportunities
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index
Oman - Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Oman Energy Market Overview
Regulatory Structure
Fiscal Regime
Table: Oman - Upstream Tax Regime
Licensing Regime
Table: Oman - Contracts and Licensing Regime
Licensing Rounds
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Oman
Oil Terminals
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Oman
Gas Pipelines
Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Summary
Table: Key Companies In Oman's Energy Sector
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Profile
CNPC
Oxy
OOC
PDO
DNO
Shell Oman Marketing Company
Other Summaries
Regional Overview
Middle East Oil And Gas Regional Overview
Oil Production: Weak Prices Have Limited Impact On Growth
Oil Consumption: Gradual Subsidy Reform To Temper Demand Growth
Refining Capacity: 2mn b/d Of New Capacity By 2020
Gas Production: Low Oil Prices Hinder Gas Progress
Gas Consumption: Switch To Gas Power Will Boost Demand
Table: Middle East - Oil And Gas Production, Refining Capacity And Trade (2013-2024)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Source
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index
Table: Weighting

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