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Oman Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Oman Country Risk Report Q2 2018

Executive Summary

Core Views

Oman’s economic growth will accelerate in 2018 thanks largely to a recovery in hydrocarbon production. From 2019 onwards, we expect headline economic growth to remain relatively robust despite a bleak outlook for oil production as the investment in the non-oil sector gathers momentum.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth To Recover In 2018
Oman's economic growth will accelerate in 2018 due largely to a recovery in hydrocarbon production. From 2019 onwards, we expect
headline economic growth to remain relatively robust despite a bleak outlook for oil production as the investment in the non-oil sector
gathers momentum
TABLE: SNAPSHOT OF KEY INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: SELECT INFRASTRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS
Monetary Policy
CBO To Follow Fed Hikes In 2018
The Central Bank of Oman (CBO) will continue to follow the US Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2018 and 2019, in order to support
prices, while limiting improvements in liquidity conditions
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment
Oman's positive net international investment position will decline over the coming years on the back of persistent current account
the next decade, given large foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth fund assets, and continued access to international capital
markets
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
The Omani Economy To 2027
The Next Episode: Shifting Away From Oil
Declining oil production and weak global energy prices will weigh on growth over the coming decade. Although Oman is diversifying its
economy, it needs to do more to reduce its energy dependence and develop self-sustaining growth outside of the hydrocarbons and
energy-intensive sectors
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
We expect Oman to remain one of the MENA region's most politically stable nations over the coming quarters. With that said, we
cannot rule out renewed protests against the government of Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said in the medium term, if plans to diversify the
economy do not bear fruit. We also highlight uncertainty over who will succeed the 77-year-old Sultan as a risk to stability in the medium
term
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Royal succession is the major question regarding Oman's political future, although demographic change and regional instability also
pose challenges. The impetus for any major political change is likely to come from Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said, assuming that he
tackles the issue before the end of his reign
TABLE: FRONTRUNNERS FOR THE SUCCESSION
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
TABLE: MAIN TERRORIST GROUPS
TABLE: POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISK
TABLE: MAJOR CONFLICT FLASHPOINTS
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO CONFLICT RISK
Transport Network
TABLE: ROAD RISKS
TABLE: PORTS AND INLAND WATERWAYS RISKS
TABLE: AIR TRANSPORT RISKS
Chapter 5: BMI Global Macro Outlook
EM Growth To Accelerate In 2018 While DMs Plateau
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

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