Market Research Logo

Oman Country Risk Report 20 2018

Oman Country Risk Report 20 2018

Oman's economic growth will accelerate in 2018 and 2019 largely owing to a recovery in hydrocarbon exports. From 2020 onwards, we expect headline economic growth to remain relatively robust despite a bleak outlook for oil production as the investment in the non-oil sector gathers momentum.

Despite a ramp-up in debt in recent years, we believe that fiscal and debt dynamics will remain sustainable in the short-term thanks to a declining fiscal deficit and range of options for financing the shortfall.

Over the longer term, rising global interest rates and high debt levels will put increasing pressure on government finances, requiring more aggressive fiscal consolidation to ensure sustainability.

Similarly, Oman's current account deficits will not pose significant risks to the riyal-dollar peg in the short-term thanks to several sources of both government and external financing, but persistent shortfalls over the longer term or an external shock could generate increased pressures to devalue.

We expect Oman to remain one of the MENA region's most politically stable nations over the coming quarters. That said, we cannot rule out renewed protests against the government of Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said in the medium term if plans to diversify the economy do not bear fruit. We also highlight uncertainty over who will succeed the 77 year old Sultan as a risk to stability in the medium term.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Hydrocarbon Gains To Spur Uptick In Growth
TABLE: KEY NON-HYDROCARBONS INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, BY VALUE
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Rising Hydrocarbon Production To Shrink C/A Deficit
TABLE: GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL ASSETS
Outlook On External Position
External Position To Stay Sustainable, Despite Persistent C/A Deficits
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Persistent Deficits Raise Long-Term Risks
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Omani Economy To 2027
The Next Episode: Shifting Away From Oil
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Uncertain Succession Plans Threaten Long-Term Stability
TABLE: SCENARIOS OVERVIEW
TABLE: KEY SUCCESSION FIGURES
Chapter 4: Operational Risk
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Business Crime
TABLE: BUSINESS RESPONSE TO WHITE COLLAR AND ORGANISED CRIME RISKS
Education
Chapter 5:BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: OMAN – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report