Over our five-year outlook to 2021, we expect Oman's consumer outlook to grow at a tepid rate owing to increasingly unfavourable consumer conditions. We have revised down our real GDP growth forecasts for 2017 due to oil production cuts and relatively low prices, which will dampen investor sentiment as growth struggles to return to levels seen prior to the H214 global oil slump. The Omani consumer further faces rising inflationary pressures amid subsidy cuts.
Over our five-year forecast period (2017-2021), Oman's economic growth will struggle to return to pre-2015 levels. Our Country Risk team has revised down our 2017 real GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 1.2%, on the back of oil production cuts and relatively low prices. Economic growth in 2017 will be significantly lower than our 3.1% estimate in 12016, with growth remaining subdued through to 2021, averaging 2.3% over 2017-2021.