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Norway Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Norway Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Business investment and consumption will drive Norwegian real GDP growth in 2018-2019, as higher oil prices continue to buoy the economy.

We continue to expect a bifurcation in fixed capital formation, with non-residential investment picking up the baton from weakening residential investment.

Divisions within Norway's ruling coalition since the September 2017 election, and inconsistent support from the centre-right Christian Democrats, have nega-tively impacted the government's stability and degree of control over policy.Major Forecast Changes

We have raised our 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 2.3%, from 2.0%, on account of improving leading indicators.

We forecast average krone/euro exchange rates of NOK9.45/EUR in 2018 and NOK9.10/EUR in 2019, which are downgrades from our previous forecasts of NOK9.10/EUR and NOK8.80/EUR respectively.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Investment Recovery To Boost Norwegian Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES, 2016
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
NOK: Tighter Monetary Policy To Boost Norwegian Krone
TABLE: FITCH SOLUTIONS CURRENCY FORECAST
10-Year Forecast
The Norwegian Economy To 2027
Past The Worst, But Painful Transition Ahead
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Norway Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Strong Economy Bolsters Norwegian Government, But Divisions Over Immigration To Linger
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Stability Still The Core Scenario
Global Macro Outlook
Fewer Negative Surprises, But Trade Risks Rising
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: NORWAY – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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