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North Korea Defence and Security Report 2016

BMI View: After the accession of Kim Jong-Un as North Korean ruler, the reform of the country's 'militaryfirst' policy has become apparent. Even though the Korean Peope's Army (KPA) is a weakened force - thatsuffers from logistical shortages, ageing equipment, and inadequate training - and the country is sufferingfrom a tough domestic economic climate, we expect North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and longrangeballistic missiles to continue. However, due to planned economic reforms, defence spending may bepartly sacrificed. Reliable data about North Korean spending and resources are difficult to obtain, but itsstrengths are clearly in a vast infantry machine rather than in high tech capabilities it will consequentlylook to import.

In 2016, North Korea will remain a formidable military threat to its neighbours due to its massive 1.1mnstrong conventional armed forces and its weapons of mass destruction, which include nuclear weapons.

Defence spending is estimated to increase by 3.0% in 2015, which is at a slower growth rate than the 5.7%increase in 2014. In 2016 however, we forecast North Korea to increase its defence spending by 7.8%, asignificant acceleration from 2015.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Defence
Industry Forecast
Defence Spending
Table: Defence Expenditure (North Korea 2012-2019)
Defence Trade
Imports
Exports
Armed Forces
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (North Korea 2005-2012)
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (North Korea 2012-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
North Korea Security Risk Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific - Defence Industry Risk Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
North Korea Defence Market Overview
Domestic Defence Market
Domestic Defence Market
North Korea Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Threats
International Threats
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Table: Defence Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting of Defence Risk Reward Index

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