BMI View: We have made no major revisions to the Nigerian telecoms market outlook for Q417.Overallmarket growth has been weighed down by the poor performances of both Airtel, 9mobile (Etisalat) andMTN, with the market shedding 10.209m subscribers in Q217. We believe there is still room for operatorsto expand organically, but that will entail expanding networks beyond core urban markets where returns onnetwork investments will be limited as a result of low customer expenditure power. Etisalat walked awayfrom its business, the decision will have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's highly competitive mobilemarket. Emerging Markets Telecommunications Service (EMTS) took over Etisalat's operations with thebacking of the government, and rebranded to 9mobile. We expect that competition will heat up further in the3G/4G segment as Airtel launched its 4G service with ntel also expanding to Port Harcourt. In the fixedvoice market, we expect the combination of mobile substitution as well as CDMA and inactive fixed voicedisconnection to continue decreasing fixed voice access.
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Nigerian mobile subscriptions reached 142.872mn in Q217, representing y-o-y decline of 4.9%. Themarket saw strong losses of 1.841mn subscribers in Q416 and 12.924mn in H117 due to theimplementation of new regulations governing the definition of an active mobile customer and thesubsequent re-emergence of registered SIMs which were previously considered inactive. We believe themarket will see steady organic growth to 2021.