Nigeria Shipping Report Q3 2015
BMI View: Although Nigeria's wider economy is characterised by an overreliance on oil exports and lackof domestic productive capacity, the former does provide upside risk to our forecasts going forward, withNigerian ports set to reap the benefits over the medium term.
Modest growth will be the order of the day in 2015 across Nigeria's main ports, with the port of Sapele setto lead the way in terms of year-on-year (y-o-y) growth (3.00%). Meanwhile, the country's largest port inLagos is poised to register y-o-y gains of 2.00%, which is slightly below growth rates at the ports ofHarcourt and Tincan Island (2.5% and 2.5%, respectively).
We have recently revised down our growth forecasts for Nigeria, to reflect our view that lower oil exportrevenue will lead to a reduction in both private consumption and fixed investment this year and next. Weare now well below consensus on growth for both years, at 3.9% in 2015 and 4.0% in 2016, compared toBloomberg consensus forecasts of 4.9% and 5.7% respectively (and our previous 5.6% and 5.7% forecasts).
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