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Nigeria Retail Report Q2 2016

Nigeria Retail Report Q2 2016

BMI View: Nigeria's economy has recorded respectable year-on-year economic growth over the pastdecade and we currently forecast real GDP growth in 2016 to reach 3.6%. With modest growth likely inhousehold incomes, consumer spending patterns are unlikely to change and most households will be able topurchase only consumer staples. This will keep essentials spending at the exceptionally high level of 75.3%,with any increases in non-essentials spending being driven primarily by the 5.3% of Nigerian householdsinhabiting the USD50,000+ income bracket.

Key Views & Developments:

We expect the dollar value of total household spending to reach USD223bn in 2016, up on last year'sUSD209bn but still hit hard by the weak naira.

Food & non-alcoholic drinks spending, the largest retail sub-sector, will reach USD130.7bn in 2016, whilehousing & utilities spending will amount to USD25.9bn.

Almost 5.1mn households will be in the USD10,000-plus income bracket by the end of 2016, representing9.7% of the total.

South Africa based clothing retailer Truworths International Ltd., closed its remaining Nigerian stores inJanuary 2016, citing rising operating costs and government regulatory red tape as the main reasons for itswithdrawal. However, the company is reported stating that it did not see its exit from Nigeria necessarily asa permanent decision.

Nigeria's largest lender, Guaranty Trust Bank, announced in February 2016 that it would be lookingtowards investing in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector and small to medium-sized (SME)consumer goods companies, in its search for growth in the current low oil price economy.

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Headline Retail Forecast
Table: Total Household Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Retail Sector Forecast
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Clothing & Footwear
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Household Goods
Table: Household Goods Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Consumer Electronics Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Toys, Sports, Gardens and Pets Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Personal Care
Table: Personal Care Spending (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Household Numbers and Income Forecast
Table: Household Income Data (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Demographic Forecast
Table: Total Population (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Babies (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Children (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Children (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young People (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Young Adults (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Table: Population: Urban (Nigeria 2013-2020)
Industry Risk/Reward Index
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q216
Industry Risk Reward Index
Market Overview
Competitive Landscape
Clothing And Footwear
Table: Selected Clothing & Footwear Retailers
Household Goods
Table: Selected Household Goods/Homeware/Home Improvement Retailers
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers
Department Stores
Table: Selected Department Stores
Table: Selected E-commerce/Online Marketplaces
Drug Stores/ Pharmacies
Table: Drug Store/Pharmacies
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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