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Nigeria Power Report Q2 2016

Nigeria Power Report Q2 2016

BMI View: An economic crisis, unorthodox monetary policy and concerns about a devaluation of the nairawill deter foreign investment in Nigeria's power sector. This will stall government efforts to plug the powergeneration deficit with private capital, with investors likely to delay market entry until Nigeria comes toterms with a painful economic adjustment to lower oil prices.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

We believe foreign companies are likely to delay or cancel entering the power market entry amidconcerns about opaque power sector policies, a devaluation of the naira and capital controls, whiledomestic investors will struggle to access funding amid liquidity constraints in the banking sector.

Further, there is still little concrete power sector policy beyond the points outlined in the APC manifesto.Policy appears to be premised on privatising and securing the financial viability of the sector as a way ofimproving power supply. However, Babatunde Fashola, the minister of power, works and housing is yetto outline his energy policy in full.

As a consequence of these dynamics we maintain our conservative forecasts for growth in electricitygeneration and capacity. We forecast electricity generation will grow by an annual average of 4.3%between 2017-2025, following a jump in growth as National Integrated Power Plan (NIPP) projects arebrought online in 2016. Gas-fired generation will remain the largest component of the power mix, butgrowth will be constrained by gas shortages.


BMI Industry View
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Nigeria Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2015-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Nigeria Power Forecast Scenario
Table: APC: Manifesto Needs To Be Fleshed Out
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Transmission & Distribution
Transmission & Distribution
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2020-2025)
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
SSA Power Risk/Reward Index
Table: SSA Power RRI (Scores Out Of 100)
Nigeria Power Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation and Competition
Table: PHCN Successor Companies
Pricing
Nigeria Power Projects Database
Table: Nigeria - Top 10 Projects By Capacity Type (MW)
Competitive Landscape
Regional Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Methodology And Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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