Proposals to boost local drugmakers' manufacturing capabilities in Nigeria will be supportedby a gradual recovery in oil prices and a more proactive stance on improving the local medicine supply.
While local drugmakers will continue to be challenged by the slow progress of government reforms in thewider economy, we expect company growth will return over the long-term as economic growth picks up.
Headline Expenditure Forecast
Pharmaceuticals: NGN185.7bn (USD719mn) in 2016 to NGN194.0bn (USD607mn) in 2017; +4.4% inlocal currency terms and -15.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with previous quarter.
Healthcare: NGN3.97trn (USD15.4bn) in 2016 to NGN4.35trn (USD13.60bn) in 2017; +9.4% in localcurrency terms and -11.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with previous quarter.
Nigeria's low per-capita pharmaceutical expenditure limits the opportunities for innovative drugmakers.This is reflected in its score of 22.1 in BMI's innovative Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward index. While thecountry's overall market size is significant, operational and political risks are elevated, dissuading foreigninvestment. Also, the regulatory environment is also highly challenging with a lack of patent respect.