BMI View: Despite consistently robust headline growth in insurance premiums in Nigeria, the recent performance and immediate outlook is not encouraging, when considered in real terms. Inflation will more than offset nominal premium growth in local currency terms until at least 2018, according to our forecasts. Beyond the next year or two, the prognosis brightens, with the prospect of a return to positive premium growth in both USD and real terms. Insurance sector specific regulatory initiatives are likely to encourage sector consolidation and greater foreign participation. However, strong long-term real growth in real premiums - i.e. sustainable beyond the next hydrocarbon price cycle - depends upon a diversification of the economy and a greater distribution of wealth than policy elites currently countenace.