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Nigeria Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

Nigeria Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

BMI View: We have revised our growth forecasts for Nigeria to 3.5% and 3.6% for 2015 and 2016, from3.9% and 4% respectively, based on a greater import contraction than we had originally forecast.Meanwhile, the long-term outlook is clouded by the fiscal and political difficulties of transition to a growthmodel that is not driven by oil. Given Nigeria's heavy reliance on imported consumer goods, the nairadevaluation which we expect later this year will result in inflation accelerating in the short term (we see itending the year at 12% y-o-y). This will be negative for consumption.

Headline Industry Forecasts

Per capita food consumption (local currency) 2015 = +7.0%; forecast compound annual growth rate(CAGR) 2014 to 2019 = +7.0%

Beer volume sales 2015 = +0.5%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +2.0%

Mass grocery retail sales (local currency) 2015 = +36.1%; forecast CAGR 2014 to 2019 = +41.3%


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Food
Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Industry Forecast
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019)
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019)
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Trade
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2019)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Nigeria 2010-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q415 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index
Market Overview
Food
Food Production
Agriculture
Drink
Beer
Soft Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Nigeria 2006-2015)
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Nigeria 2006-2015)
Industry Trends And Developments
Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Nigeria's Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Nigeria's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Profile
Nestlé Nigeria
UAC Plc
Guinness Nigeria
Nigerian Breweries
Park 'n' Shop
Global Industry Overview
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting

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