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Niger Telecommunications Report 2016

Niger Telecommunications Report 2016

BMI View: We hold a positive and favourable outlook for the Nigerian mobile market and thetelecommunications sector as a whole. Mobile penetration topped 82% in Q315 and broadband penetrationstill remains very low. There remains significant demand for traditional voice and data services that hasgone thus far untapped. A rapidly maturing tower market will enable operators to extend networks into ruralareas more cost effectively, while allocation of wholesale Infraco licences will ensure investment into nextgeneration broadband networks. However, there are important industry and external risks to smooth growth.

Nigeria's government has twice postponed 4G spectrum auctions and has requested a report investigatingthe sale of incumbent telecoms operator NITEL, which will delay investment into wireline and mobile datanetworks. Meanwhile, power shortages, a weaker economic outlook amid lower oil prices and ongoingterrorist attacks all pose additional operational challenges and downside risk to our growth outlook.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

The market posted significant growth in 9M15 and ended Q315 with a total of 150.5mn mobilesubscribers, a penetration rate of over 82.5%.

A total of 11.57mn new subscribers were added in 9M15, beating our initial estimates. We believe theoverall mobile figure is likely to jump to 168.2mn by the end of 2016 before ending our forecast periodwith an impressive 196.2mn in 2019. We do nevertheless caution that there could still exist a significantamount of inactive connections in the market that could pose a downside risk to our forecast.

The mandatory registration process enforced by the government has spelled significant trouble for marketleader, MTN. MTN failed to deactivate around 5mn unregistered accounts by the August 2015 deadline.

MTN was originally fine USD5.2bn, a sum which was later reduced to USD3.9bn.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data & Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2019)
Industry Risk Reward Index
Table: Sub-saharan Africa Telecoms RRI - Q116
Market Overview
Market Share
ARPU
Networks
Mobile Content
Table: Selected Licensed Mobile Money Providers
Wireline Voice & Broadband Market
Table: Nigeria Fixed-Line Market
Table: Nigeria Wireline Developments, 2013-2015
Regulatory Development
Table: Nigeria - Division Of Regulatory Responsibility
Competition
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector
Table: Nigeria Mobile Market
Table: MTN Nigeria
Table: Globacom
Table: Airtel
Table: Etisalat
Table: Visafone
Company Profile
NITEL
MTN
Airtel
Globacom
Etisalat Nigeria
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025)
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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