Nigerien real GDP growth will decelerate in 2018 and 2019 as uranium production is cut and security threats disrupt trade with neighbouring countries. A strong population growth means that this improvement in headline economic expansion will not be reflected in a meaningfully improved standard of living for the average Nigerien.
Growth will remain positive due to gradual structural improvements to agriculture, producing higher yields.
Rapid population growth in Niger will keep the risks of humanitarian crises and instability elevated for the foreseeable future as efforts to reduce the high fertility rate will be thwarted by cultural norms and funding cuts to NGOs working in family planning. Inflation in Niger will remain low and stable over the next 10 years due to the country's membership of the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine currency bloc.
Niger will continue to post sizeable fiscal deficits over the next 10 years due to continued infrastructure expenditure, as well as rising security-related expenditure. Furthermore, government debt will continue on an upward trajectory due to persistent fiscal deficits.
Niger's current account balance will moderate slightly as global commodity prices provide support to the country's export revenues. Furthermore, Niger's external debt stock will rise in the years ahead due to persistent current account and fiscal deficits.
Political risk in Niger will remain elevated over the next decade due to ongoing terrorist activity in the Sahel region. Furthermore, inflows of refugees from Nigeria and porous borders will raise the risk of terrorist activity within the country.