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Niger Country Risk Report 20 2018

Niger Country Risk Report 20 2018

Nigerien real GDP growth will decelerate in 2018 and 2019 as uranium production is cut and security threats disrupt trade with neighbouring countries. A strong population growth means that this improvement in headline economic expansion will not be reflected in a meaningfully improved standard of living for the average Nigerien.

Growth will remain positive due to gradual structural improvements to agriculture, producing higher yields.

Rapid population growth in Niger will keep the risks of humanitarian crises and instability elevated for the foreseeable future as efforts to reduce the high fertility rate will be thwarted by cultural norms and funding cuts to NGOs working in family planning.
Inflation in Niger will remain low and stable over the next 10 years due to the country's membership of the Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine currency bloc.

Niger will continue to post sizeable fiscal deficits over the next 10 years due to continued infrastructure expenditure, as well as rising security-related expenditure. Furthermore, government debt will continue on an upward trajectory due to persistent fiscal deficits.

Niger's current account balance will moderate slightly as global commodity prices provide support to the country's export revenues. Furthermore, Niger's external debt stock will rise in the years ahead due to persistent current account and fiscal deficits.

Political risk in Niger will remain elevated over the next decade due to ongoing terrorist activity in the Sahel region. Furthermore, inflows of refugees from Nigeria and porous borders will raise the risk of terrorist activity within the country.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Weaker Uranium Output Will Weigh On Growth
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Current Account Deficit To Remain Wide On Import Demand
TABLE: TOP FIVE EXPORTS IN 2016
TABLE: TOP FIVE IMPORTS IN 2016
Monetary Policy
Currency Peg To Keep Inflation Low
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Security And Infrastructure Spending To Keep Deficits Wide
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Threats From Islamists Rising
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Regional Terrorism To Spill Over Into Niger
Chapter 3: Demographic Outlook
Demographic Outlook
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP %
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Trade Tensions Take Centre Stage
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: NIGER – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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