Nigerien real GDP growth will increase in 2017 and 2018 as agricultureproduction rises and trade improves with neighbouring Nigeria.However, strong population growth means that this improvement inheadline economic expansion will not be reflected in a meaningfullyimproved standard of living for the average Nigerien.
Rapid population growth in Niger will keep the risks of humanitariancrises and instability elevated for the foreseeable future as efforts toreduce the high fertility rate will be thwarted by cultural norms andfunding cuts to NGOs working in family planning.
Inflation in Niger will remain low and stable over the next 10 years dueto the country's membership in the Union Economique et MonétaireOuest Africaine currency bloc.
Niger will continue to post sizeable fiscal deficits over the next 10years due to continued infrastructure expenditure, as well as risingsecurity-related expenditure. Furthermore, government debt willcontinue on an upward trajectory due to persistent fiscal deficits.
Niger's current account balance will moderate slightly as globalcommodity prices provide support to the country's export revenues.
Furthermore, Niger's external debt stock will rise in the years aheaddue to persistent current account and fiscal deficits.
Political risk in Niger will remain elevated over the next decade dueto ongoing terrorist activity in the Sahel region. Inflows of refugesfrom Nigeria and porous borders will further raise the risk of terroristactivity within the country.