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Netherlands Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Netherlands Country Risk Report Q2 2016

Core Views Real GDP growth in the Netherlands in 2016 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, bolstered by a fiscal stimulus package, and a sustained recovery in the housing market. Net exports will make only a modest contribution to growth due to stagnating external demand from the eurozone and lower gas export volumes. The Netherlands is likely hold an early parliamentary election in 2016, as the ruling centre-right VVD seeks to gain new coalition partners, which would help it regain its lost majority in the upper house. The rising popularity of ultra-nationalist PVV will serve to draw other centrist parties together, and boost their willingness to cooperate in forming a coalition government, while isolating the PVV from power.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Supported By Fiscal Stimulus, Rising House Prices
Real GDP growth in the Netherlands in 2016 will be driven mainly by domestic demand, bolstered by a fiscal stimulus package, and
a sustained recovery in the housing market. Net exports will make only a modest contribution to growth due to stagnating external
demand from the eurozone and lower gas export volumes.
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Popularity Of Ultra-Nationalist PVV To Draw Centrist Parties Closer
The Netherlands is likely hold an early parliamentary election in 2016, as the ruling centre-right VVD seeks to gain new coali tion
partners, which would help it regain its lost majority in the u pper house. The rising popularity of ultra-nationalist PVV will serve to
draw other centrist parties together, and boost their willingness to cooperate in forming a coalition government, while isolating the
PVV from power.
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Chapter 3: Operational Risk
SWOT Analysis
Operational Risk Index
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Global Macro Outlook
Tail Risks Mounting Amid Sub-Par Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, 2015 AND 2016 (%)
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %
TABLE: MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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