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Namibia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Namibia Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Namibian growth will recover at a slower pace than we had previously forecasted, mainly on the back of a slower uptick in mining sector production. Moreover, despite a recovery in the construction sector, the outlook for the rest of the economy remains bleak, with agriculture and manufacturing sectors set to further weigh on the pace of the acceleration.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Major Forecast Changes
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Namibia's Exit From Recession Will Only Be Gradual
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
External Trade And Investment Outlook
Namibia's Current Account Deficit Will Gradually Narrow
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS IMPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP FIVE GOODS EXPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy
Bank Of Namibia To Hold Rates
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Namibia Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsFiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Namibia's Budget Deficit Will Reduce More Gradually
TABLE: SUMMARY OF MAJOR TAX REFORMS IN FY2018/19
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES FY2017/18
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Namibian Economy To 2027
Resources Will Remain A Key Growth Driver
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Uncertainty To Stem Foreign Investment In Namibia Despite Business-Friendly Reforms
TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
Long-Term Political Outlook
Namibia To Remain Broadly Stable In The Long Term
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: NAMIBIA – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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