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Myanmar Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Myanmar Country Risk Report Q4 2018

Key View:

Myanmar's real GDP growth likely accelerated to 6.4% in FY2017/18 (April-March), from 5.9% in the previous fiscal year, according to a World Bank report, and we maintain our forecast for growth to come in at 6.8% in FY2018/19. Our positive outlook on the economy is largely supported by the government's continued reform efforts and favourable demographics, which will likely attract more investment, particularly in the industrial sector.

The slow rate at which the peace process is progressing in Myanmar is a result of mutual distrust between the Tatmadaw and the EAOs, amid continued fighting. In the absence of a credible ceasefire agreement, we believe that trust will be difficult to rebuild, and this will likely see ethnic tensions persist over the coming years.

Key Risks

Myanmar remains a country in transition and a perceived deterioration in the political situation could lead to a sharp decrease in the amount of foreign direct investment, hindering growth.

Rising US interest rates could lead to a further drop in global liquidity and lower risk appetite, with emerging and frontier markets likely to bear the brunt of hot money outflows.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Manufacturing To Become A Key Growth Driver In Myanmar
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Myanmar Economy To 2027
Much Potential, But Many Challenges Remain
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Myanmar's Peace Process To Progress Very Slowly
Myanmar Country Risk Q4 2018ContentsLong-Term Political Outlook
Managing Succession Risks And Military Key To Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Strong Growth, But Greater Headwinds Too
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: MYANMAR – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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