Myanmar Country Risk Report Q3 2018
Myanmar's economic growth prospects are looking favourable on the back of continued economic liberalisation, and we forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.8% in FY2018/19 (April-March), from an estimated 6.3% in FY2017/18. Although Myanmar is the poor-est country in South East Asia in GDP per capita terms, it boasts significant market potential for the expansion of foreign companies. The country has many competitive advantages including favourable demographics and geography, as well as cheap labour cost.
Myanmar is still struggling to recover from the Rohingya crisis, but international pressure on the government is mounting as ethnic fighting in the northern Kachin state intensifies. We believe that this will likely lead to more sanctions against the military, which pose downside risks to Myanmar's economic growth recovery.
Executive Summary Core Views Key Risks Chapter 1: Economic Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Economic Risk Index Economic Growth Outlook Growth Recovery To Continue In FY2018/19 GDP By Expenditure Outlook TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS Outlook On External Position TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS Monetary Policy Framework TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTSStructural Fiscal Position TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast The Myanmar's Economy To 2027 Much Potential, But Many Challenges Remain TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS Chapter 3: Political Outlook SWOT Analysis BMI Political Risk Index Domestic Politics Sanction Risks Rising Amid Worsening Ethnic Tensions Long-Term Political Outlook Managing Succession Risks And Military Key To StabilityChapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y TABLE: MYANMAR – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS