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Myanmar Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Myanmar Country Risk Report Q3 2018

Myanmar's economic growth prospects are looking favourable on the back of continued economic liberalisation, and we forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.8% in FY2018/19 (April-March), from an estimated 6.3% in FY2017/18. Although Myanmar is the poor-est country in South East Asia in GDP per capita terms, it boasts significant market potential for the expansion of foreign companies. The country has many competitive advantages including favourable demographics and geography, as well as cheap labour cost.

Myanmar is still struggling to recover from the Rohingya crisis, but international pressure on the government is mounting as ethnic fighting in the northern Kachin state intensifies. We believe that this will likely lead to more sanctions against the military, which pose downside risks to Myanmar's economic growth recovery.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Chapter 1: Economic Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Economic Risk Index
Economic Growth Outlook
Growth Recovery To Continue In FY2018/19
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Chapter 2: 10-Year Forecast
The Myanmar's Economy To 2027
Much Potential, But Many Challenges Remain
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Chapter 3: Political Outlook
SWOT Analysis
BMI Political Risk Index
Domestic Politics
Sanction Risks Rising Amid Worsening Ethnic Tensions
Long-Term Political Outlook
Managing Succession Risks And Military Key To Stability
Chapter 4: BMI Global Macro Outlook
Key Divergences Emerging In World Economy
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: MYANMAR – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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