Market Research Logo

Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2019

Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2019

We at Fitch Solutions expect Myanmar's economic growth recovery to continue over the coming quarters, which will see the economy grow by 6 6% in FY2018/19 However, we note that downside risks to our view are rising A loss of preferential trade access to the EU, potential banking stress, and/or fiscal and monetary slippage would derail Myanmar's real GDP growth trajectory

Myanmar's ruling party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won only seven out of 13 seats that were up for contest in the November 3 by-elections, and we see this as indicative of the party's declining popularity If this trend continues, the NLD could lose its simple majority in parliament at the upcoming 2020 general elections We believe that the ruling NLD will struggle to reverse its waning political momentum given the complexity of the country's ethnic conflicts and the dominance of the Tatmadaw

Key Risks

Myanmar remains a country in transition and a perceived deterioration in the political situation could lead to a sharp decrease in the amount of foreign direct investment, hindering growth

Rising US interest rates could lead to a further drop in global liquidity and lower risk appetite, with emerging and frontier markets likely to bear the brunt of hot money outflows Myanmar Country Risk Q1 2019


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Three Downside Risks To Myanmar's Growth Outlook
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
10-Year Forecast
The Myanmar Economy To 2027
Much Potential, But Many Challenges Remain
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Myanmar Country Risk Q1 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Ruling NLD Losing Political Momentum In Myanmar
TABLE: BY-ELECTIONS RESULTS
Long-Term Political Outlook
Managing Succession Risks And Military Key To Stability
Global Macro Outlook
Continued Growth Divergence And Policy Risks Ahead
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, % Y-O-Y
Index Tables
TABLE: MYANMAR – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

Download our eBook: How to Succeed Using Market Research

Learn how to effectively navigate the market research process to help guide your organization on the journey to success.

Download eBook

Share this report