BMI View: Mozambique's insurance markets are among the least developed in the world and will remainso, beyond the duration of our core five-year forecast period, even with the participation of South Africanmajor Hollard. Premiums written as a percentage of GDP are more likely to edge down from current levels(0.3% of GDP in the life sector and 1.3% of GDP in the non-life sector) than upwards. Real growth in allkey insurance sectors is constrained by the high level of inflation stemming from a recent debt crisis,although personal accident insurance is one bright spot, which looks set to continue bucking the trend.
Over the longer term, there is scope for all sectors to return to strong growth in real terms and US dollarterms.
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Average growth in gross life premiums in nominal local currency terms across our five-year forecastperiod will be quite high, at 12.7%, but high inflation, stemming from substantial exchange ratedepreciation in 2016, will mean that average annual premium growth in real terms will be just 0.6%.
Moreover, the dollar value of premiums in 2021 will be USD38mn, according to our core forecastscenario; lower than the USD43mn chalked up in 2015.