Mozambique Freight Transport Report Q1 2016
BMI View: Mozambique's freight transport sector will continue to expand at a robust pace in 2016 and2017, albeit from a low base in the case of some modes - air freight in particular, for which volumes willremain very low for the foreseeable future. For the most part it will remain the transport related to theprimary industries - mining in particular - that will drive growth. Although coal prices have tumbled, thesector will continue to expand rapidly, increasing volumes in road and rail freight. Transit trade fromhinterland countries will continue to be important, although Mozambique loses out on most of this businessgiven its proximity to South Africa, the best-developed country in the region.
Our growth forecasts for volumes carried on Mozambique's different freight modes in 2016 remain robust,despite our having downgraded our real GDP growth projection since our last quarterly update. Aparticularly strong outlook for real trade growth - the nominal growth outlook is not quite so strong - alongwith low statistical base effects in the freight transport sector - the air freight sector especially - coupledwith investment into infrastructure and the development of new industries will support the expansion infreight volumes.
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