Mozambique Agribusiness Report Q4 2017
Mozambique's agricultural production is currently recovering from the 2015/16 El Niño episode, the fallout which is likely to weigh on the country's agribusiness sector for longer than previously predicted. Indeed, we not expect to see corn production to begin its recovery until 2019, for example, after recording consecutive years of a contraction in output growth in 2017 and 2018, on the back of a downward revision in our forecasts since our last quarterly update. Despite the short-term bearish forecast for output, we continue to hold a relatively positive view on the agribusiness sector of Mozambique beyond 2019. Mozambique has been attracting growing interest from foreign investors, and the industry will benefit from this trend in the coming years. Although the country could be able to tap abundant and largely unexploited land and water resources, its production will not keep up with robust consumption growth, however. Self-sufficiency regarding corn and poultry will slowly decrease in the coming years, leading to increasing imports. Sugar production growth to 2020/21: 20.0% to reach 420,000 tonnes. As one of Mozambique's key cash crops, long-term sugar production growth will reflect an increase in export-driven demand and the opening up of new markets; output is also expected to benefit from investment in yields.
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