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Morocco Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Morocco Country Risk Report Q1 2020

We at Fitch Solutions expect Morocco's growth rate to outperform the MENA regional average in 2019 and 2020, a view underpinned by expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. That said, we note that a weak outlook for net exports – fuelled by a eurozone slowdown – will continue to cap the pace of acceleration.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Morocco Growth To Outperform Regional Average
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF IMPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: BREAKDOWN OF EXPORTS IN 2018
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
Monetary Policy
Small Rate Cut Ahead For Morocco's Bank Al-Maghrib
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
Privatisation To Aid Morocco's Public Finances
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES (2018)
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
Currency Forecast
Further Liberalisation Ahead For Moroccan Dirham
THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings’ Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings’ analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Morocco Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
The Moroccan Economy To 2028
Diversification To Advance Over Next Decade
TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Morocco Expansionary 2020 Budget To Help Contain Social Discontent
Long-Term Political Outlook
Positive Outlook, Though Risks Remain
Operational Risk
TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK
Economic Openness
TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
Utilities Network
TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
TABLE: FUEL RISKS
TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
TABLE: WATER RISKS
Global Macro Outlook
Manufacturing Weakness And Rising Political Risk To Weigh On Growth
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: MOROCCO – MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS

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