Montenegro Telecommunications Report 2015
BMI View: The Montenegrin telecommunications market, reflecting its small size, is effectively saturatedand there are few opportunities left for new entrants and existing players alike. Mobile subscription growthis volatile as operators focus on extracting greater value from existing customers and emphasise postpaidproducts as part of their 3G/4G rollouts. Prontotel seems ready to take up the government's offer of a fourthmobile licence in 2015; we see no room for it here, although we acknowledge its need to reduce itsexposure to its core business in the VoIP market. Incumbent Crnogorski Telekom's success in building aconverged services product - with TV at its centre - sets a template for alternative operators, but there arenone with the resources, scale or ambition to follow through. In any case, CT's completion of an IP-basednext-generation network gives it an unassailable edge in the advanced services market.
2014 data showed minimal growth in the mobile market after several quarters of discounting connections.2015 will see a pickup in growth, but we foresee only marginal increases over our five-year forecastperiod to 1.012mn in 2019.
Fluctuating 3G figures show how promotions have driven uptake. We forecast growth to be more steadyover 2015-2019 as mobile data usage becomes more regular among subscribers.
Broadband figures have been revised in line with our focus on dedicated mobile broadband. We expectthe market to reach 372,000 connections over wireless and wireline networks by 2019.
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