Mongolia Infrastructure Report Q2 2016
BMI View: Mongolia's construction industry went significantly off trend in 2014 due to the slowdown inRussia and weakening demand in China. However, there are strong fundamentals underpinning Mongolia'sconstruction outlook over the next decade, namely GDP growth, the underdeveloped state of much of theinfrastructure, expanding commodities sector and strengthening regional cooperation and investment.Industry growth to 2025 will average 6.9% annually.Latest Updates And Structural Trends
We forecast sector growth of 6.4% in 2016 and averaging 6.9% annually to 2025.
Foreign inflows are returning to Mongolia. In the first nine months of 2015 USD50bn of FDI flowed intoMongolia, a similar total to 2014, but stronger than 2013.
GFCF in 2015 fell 38.1% in our estimations, though we currently forecast positive growth returning in2016 at 6.0%, the start of a strong medium-term trend of 9% average growth between 2016 and 2020.
Rio Tinto secured USD4.4bn in funding in December 2015 to build more than 200km of tunnels toaccess higher quality ores at the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine over the next five to seven years.
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