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Moldova Country Risk Report 20 2018

Moldova Country Risk Report 20 2018

After GDP growth came in above expectations in 2017, supported by a benign external environment, we expect a slowdown in 2018 in line with waning momen-tum in the region and heightened political uncertainty in the run up to the November parliamentary election.

Household consumption will remain the engine of growth in the coming years, supported by rising real wages, relatively low unemployment, and steady remit-tance inflows.

Domestic political risk is likely to remain elevated in the months before the key election, with the country's pro-EU and pro-Russian factions seeking to gain control of policy direction. With fears of external interference high, there is a risk that the losing side will reject the outcome, increasing the risk of social unrest and further weakening confidence in the country's democratic institutions.

Key Risks

Russian-backed separatist forces will continue to undermine Chisinau's authority and threaten Moldova's territorial integrity, remaining a key source of tension within the country. Though not our core view, the risk of intervention from Moscow will remain present in the period ahead.

Risks to government stability are likely to stay elevated throughout the ten-year forecast period, with deep divisions undermining efforts to promote consensus politics.

Mass emigration and an ageing population pose long-term risks to labour productivity and the tax base, which in turn will put a growing strain on public finances.


Executive Summary
Core Views
Key Risks
Country Risk Summary
Economic Risk Index
Political Risk Index
SWOT
Economic – SWOT Analysis
Political – SWOT Analysis
Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Outlook
Moldova'S Growth Rate To Slow On External And Political Headwinds
GDP By Expenditure Outlook
TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
Outlook On External Position
TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
TABLE: TOP 5 EXPORTS IN 2017
TABLE: TOP 5 IMPORTS IN 2017
Monetary Policy Framework
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
Structural Fiscal Position
TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
Long-Term Economic Outlook
Structural Reform Key To Improving Growth Outlook
Moldova Country Risk 2018ContentsPolitical Outlook
Domestic Politics
Risks Increasing In Moldova As Key Election Nears
Long-Term Political Outlook
Competing Forces Keep Risks Elevated
Demographic Outlook
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP
TABLE: POPULATION BY AGE GROUP %
TABLE: POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS
TABLE: KEY POPULATION RATIOS
TABLE: URBAN/RURAL POPULATION & LIFE EXPECTANCY
Global Macro Outlook
Pressure On EM Grows, As Do Divergences
TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS – REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
Index Tables
TABLE: MOLDOVA – MACROECONOMIC DATA & FORECASTS

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