Mexico Tourism Report Q1 2016
BMI View: Mexico's tourism sector will grow slowly in 2016, with arrivals rising by just 0.18%. However,this reflects a return to trend growth years after two years of anomalous double-digit growth and we do notbelieve that the lower 2016 growth figure marks a change in any of Mexico's positive fundamentals.
Key Updates And Forecasts
We have raised our forecast for industry value growth in 2016 to 9.38%, to USD25.38bn. Industry valueis set to grow above 6% for the rest of the forecast period, with positive implications for investment intothe industry.
North American arrivals to Mexico will fall by 0.48% in 2016, to 10.4mn, led by a decline in US tourists.
Given the dependence of the Mexican industry on US tourists, this will weigh on overall sector growth in2016, although we expect North American arrivals to return to growth in 2017.
We expect outbound tourism to grow by a higher rate than inbound arrivals over the forecast period,reflecting Mexico's growing middle class and the impact of the security situation.
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