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Mexico Shipping Report Q2 2015


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Mexico Shipping Report Q2 2015

BMI View: We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics. As a result, we retain a cautious optimism towards the country's shipping sector. Mexico's real GDP growth will accelerate in 2015, driven by an improvement private consumption, stronger growth of manufacturing exports, and a recovery in public investment. Furthermore, we expect an uptick in private fixed investment into the country's recently liberalised energy sector, as the first oil licensing round begins in H115. We believe real GDP growth in Mexico bottomed in H114, coming in at 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y), and expect the economy to sustain a recovery in the coming quarters. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2015.

Lower oil prices will contribute to a stronger US consumer, resulting in greater demand for Mexican manufactured goods exports. Mexico's manufacturing sector accounts for over 17.0% of GDP and is a main generator of employment. As a result, more favourable labour market dynamics, combined with the diminishing effect of a tax hikes on consumer goods that were implemented in January 2014, will lead to significantly stronger household spending in 2015, providing a boost to box imports. An uptick in fixed investment into infrastructure and energy will also be a main driver of faster headline growth in the coming quarters.


BMI Industry View
Mexico - Q215
SWOT
Mexico - Q215
Political
Economic
Operational Risk
Industry Forecast
Port Of Manzanillo Throughput
Port Of Veracruz Throughput
Table: Major Ports Data (Mexico 2012-2019)
Table: Trade Overview (Mexico 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Mexico 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners, 2006-2013
Table: Mexico's Main Export Destinations, 2006-2013
Market Overview
Mexico - Q215
Shipping - Global Industry View
Container Lines To Prosper In 2015
Global Company Strategy
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
Evergreen Line
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: GDP By Expenditure (Mexico 2012-2019)
Demographic Forecast
Demographic Outlook
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (Mexico 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (Mexico 1990-2025)

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