Mexico Shipping Report Q1 2016
BMI View: BMI forecasts healthy growth in Mexico's two major ports of Manzanillo and Veracruz in 2016, although these numbers represent a slight drop on 2015 figures.
Although we forecast a significant drop in trade totals based on 2015 figures, growth will remain positive.
Mexico remains dependent on the American economy for much of its trade and will benefit from rising disposable incomes in the US over 2016, as well as from rises in real GDP and GDP per capita figures domestically.
In 2016 BMI forecasts Mexico's shipping sector to grow moderately over the year, off the back of much higher growth volumes seen in 2015.
The Port of Veracruz will lead with box throughput, posting growth of 5.0% in 2016, while the Port of Manzanillo will lead in gross tonnage, posting 5.1% growth.
Real trade growth will remain positive but dip from a robust expansion of 12.14% in 2015 to reach a much smaller 2.31% in 2016.
Over the medium term to 2019 growth looks to be steady and sustainable at both major ports.
Tonnage throughput at Manzanillo will grow by an average of 5.6% per year over this time, while box throughput will supersede this, growing at 6.8% on average.
At the Port of Veracruz, slightly more sedate growth will see gross tonnage grow by 3.3% a year while box throughput will grow by 4.2%.
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