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Mexico Power Report Q3 2015


Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Mexico Power Report Q3 2015

BMI View: Our outlook for Mexico's power sector remains bright; a view based on the liberalisation of theMexican power market, the country's positive macroeconomic trajectory and strong investor interest in themarket. We forecast total power generation to rise by 3.6% in 2015 and we expect it to expand by an annualaverage of 3.5% through to 2024 - driven by growing private investment as a result of tgpower sectorreforms and continued public tenders of generation and transmission projects. We also forecast an annualaverage power consumption growth of 4% over our 10-year forecast period to 2024. We expect natural gasfiredgeneration to increase its already dominant position in the Mexican power mix, fuelled bycheap feedstock imports from the US and increasing domestic supply. Finally, we forecast renewables toexperience significant growth over the next decade, although the power mix will remain heavily dependenton thermal generation.

Key Trends And Developments

Electricity tariffs for each type of consumer in March 2015 were significantly lower than a yearearlier, according to the Mexican government. The Ministry of Energy quantified a reduction in tariffs of18-26% for industrial consumers, 16% for commercial consumers, and 7.5% and 2% for residentialconsumers with high and low demand, respectively. Lower electricity prices will be a boon for Mexico'spower-intensive manufacturing sector, supporting our forecast for the country's economy to expand by3.3% in real terms in 2015.


BMI Industry View
SWOT
Industry Forecast
Mexico Snapshot
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2014-2019)
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
Mexico Power Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2019-2024)
Electricity Consumption
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2019-2024)
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2018)
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2019-2024)
Table: T&D Projects Tendered By The CFE In August 2014
Table: T&D Projects Tendered By The CFE In 2015
Table: Mexico Transmission Lines, As Of March 2013
Industry Risk Reward Index
Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100)
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Index
Rewards
Risks
Market Overview
Key Policies And Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Sustainable Energy Policies
Pricing
Table: Mexico's Average Electricity Prices - Mxn Cents/Kwh
Mexico Power Projects Database
Table: Mexico Key Power Projects
Competitive Landscape
Table: Private Companies Expanding Mexico's Power Market
Comisión Federal de Electricidad
Iberdrola
Gas Natural Fenosa
Regional Overview
Gas And Renewables To Offer Abundant Opportunities
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sources
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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